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SAVE-module produktiebedrijven: de modellering van energieverbruiksontwikkelingen
Gepubliceerd door: Publicatie datum:
ECN Beleidsstudies 1995
ECN publicatienummer: Publicatie type:
ECN-I--94-043 ECN rapport
Aantal pagina's: Volledige tekst:
90 Download PDF  (8437kB)

SAVE stands for Simulation and Analysis of Virtual use in Energyscenarios and will be used for the analysis of future energy savings possibilities for end users, in conjunction with volume growth and structural changes in the socio-economic system, e.g. shifts in production patterns. This report contains a description of the Production module, that includes industry, agriculture and construction sectors. A bottom-up approach is used modelling heavy energy users on a process level. Alternative processes and specific saving options are evaluated. In the model approach implementation takes place, limited by 3 types of restrictions. First, technical and organisational restrictions (f.e. lack of information and situational barriers are modeled with an S-curve). Second, a vintage approach takes embodied capital depreciation into account. Third, the technology is evaluated on its economic benefits and compared with competing technologies. Due to a normal variance in decision settings, there are no absolute winners or losers. Another feature is the dynamic nature of penetration processes. Whether a technology can reach full market maturity depends in SAVE-Production on its success in previous periods. In the model structure, the physical variables that determine energy consumption can be defined in various ways, either by predictions of sectoral economic growth, by the development of related physical variables, or autonomously. In this way phenomena like recycling, de-materialization, feedstock and product switches can be modeled. Data in this report have a preliminary status and serve mainly as an example for the use of the model.

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