NoordzeeWind carries out an extensive monitoring and evaluation programme (NSW-MEP) as part of the project Offshore Wind Farm Egmond aan Zee (OWEZ). Task 1.7.2 of this pro-gramme is "short-term output prediction".
This report describes for the period between 1st July 2007 and 31st March 2008:
• Day-ahead forecasts of the power output of the OWEZ, day-ahead energy prices from the APX, and settlement prices from TenneT; as stored in the NSW-MEP database maintained by ECN.
• Overviews of measured and forecasted energy, the corresponding programme imbalance plus the associated fictitious payments and fees, as well as information on exceedances and extremes; also stored in the database.
• An assessment of
(i) the value of wind power forecasting and
(ii) the use of such forecasts at events like storms.
In addition this report evaluates the experience over the entire period between 1st January 2007 and 31st March 2008 and for that reason is the final report on Task 1.7.2.
As to the value of the applied wind power forecasting for the OWEZ there is evidence that the best choice for OWEZ is to accept imbalance payments (OWEZ settles imbalance energy with TenneT) rather than with an imbalance fee (a third party takes care of imbalance energy), and that optimized forecasts are the more economic choice over not-optimized forecasts.
The main conclusion on the use of wind power forecasts at events like storms is that the predictability of exceedances is low and that the predictability of extremes is poor. There is some evidence for the ability to serve as an early warning to high wind-speed cut-out.