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Titel:
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International energy technology portfolio assessment: ETSAP's contributions
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Auteur(s):
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Gepubliceerd door:
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Publicatie datum:
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ECN
Beleidsstudies
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1995
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ECN publicatienummer:
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Publicatie type:
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ECN-RX--95-072
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Conferentiebijdrage
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Aantal pagina's:
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Volledige tekst:
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19
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Niet beschikbaar.
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Gepresenteerd op: IEA/OECD/ETSAP seminar on the role of energy thechnologies toward sustainable development, Kansai Science City, Japan, 16-17 oktober 1995.
Samenvatting:
New and improved energy technologies are to play a decisive role in anyfuture strategy aiming to reconcile economic development goals with long-term
sustainability concerns. For the longer term, assessments of the possible
role for new and improved technologies and options under varying conditions
can be used to help guide research, development and dissemination (R,D&D)
programmes. Relevant conditions can be common to all nations (e.g. prices of
internationally traded fuels, agreed environmental goals), or country
specific (supply and demand structures, resource base, policies). Selection
of appropriate R,D&D portfolios, either at the national level or in the
framework of international cooperation, is facilitated by increasing the
insights in key conditions favouring or hampering the introduction and/or
expansion of technologies and options. Energy Technology R,D&D decision
making is inherently subject to considerable uncertainties, both with respect
to (future) characteristics of the technology itself and with respect to the
(future) external conditions it may be facing. Network oriented modelling
approaches, in particular those offering comprehensive, dynamic and systemic
evaluations like the MARKAL model and its off-springs, can provide valuable
information and insights. International collaboration in the framework of the
IEA ETSAP programme, within which the MARKAL model family is developed and
applied, has shown its strength by providing a platform for methodological
discussions, but also for technology data exchange, evaluation and review.
From the extensive experience gained within ETSAP, key factors driving the
appreciation of technologies and options to reduce environmental
externalities are identified, as well as potential 'winners' in individual
countries and/or in groups of countries. Recently stochastic modelling
approaches are initiated, i.a. to study hedging strategies under uncertainty
with respect to climate change. These can add decisively to the technology
R,D&D assessment capabilities compared with the prevailing practice of
employing multiple scenario, deterministic analyses. 2 figs., 3 tabs.
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