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Titel:
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The learning potential of photovoltaics: implications for energy policy
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Auteur(s):
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Gepubliceerd door:
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Publicatie datum:
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ECN
Beleidsstudies
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1-3-2004
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ECN publicatienummer:
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Publicatie type:
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ECN-RX--04-019
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Artikel wetenschap tijdschrift
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Aantal pagina's:
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10
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Gepubliceerd in: Energy Policy (Elsevier), , 2004, Vol.32, p.1545-1554.
Samenvatting:
This article examines the prospects for cost reductions of flat panelphotovoltaic (PV) electricity. Current PV production cost ranges are
presented, in terms of cost per peak W and cost per kWh, for single
crystalline and multi-crystalline silicon, as well as for thin-film
technologies. Possible decreases of these costs are assessed, as expected
based on learning curves. The cumulative production needed to reach
'breakeven' (at which PV is competitive with conventional alternatives)
is estimated for a range of values of the learning curve parameter.
The cost of this cumulative production is calculated, and the question
is posed whether and how the 'cost cap' can be bridged, the latter being
the difference between what this cumulative production will cost and
what it would cost if it could be produced at a currently competitive
level. We also estimate how much PV could gain if external costs (due
to environmental and health damage) of energy were internalised, for
example by an energy tax. The conslusions are: (1) mainly due its high
costs, PV electricity is unlikely to play a major role in global energy
supply and carbon emissions abatement before 2020, (2) extrapolating
past learning curves, one can expect its costs to decrease significantly,
so that a considerable PV electricity share world-wide could materialise
after 2020, (3) niche-market applications, e.g. using stand-alone systems
in remote araes, are crucial for continuing "the ride along the learning
curve', (4)damage costs of conventional (fossil) power sources are consideable,
and they could provide an important part of the rationale behind major
policy efforts to encourage increased use of PV. The costs involved
with such policies would be elevated, but a considerable share of these
costs could be justified by the fact that conventional power damage
costs constitute a significant fraction of the cost gap, although probably
not enough to close it.
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