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ECN publicatie:
Cleaner shipping: trade off between air pollution, costs and refinery CO2 emissions
Gepubliceerd door: Publicatie datum:
ECN Beleidsstudies 30-5-2008
ECN publicatienummer: Publicatie type:
ECN-M--08-047 Conferentiebijdrage
Aantal pagina's: Volledige tekst:
8 Download PDF  (66kB)

Gepresenteerd op: 2nd international conference on Harbours, Air Quality and Climate Change, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 29-30 mei 2008.

Still subject to final approval in October 2008, the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) agreed on a maximum sulphur content of 0.5% for shipping fuels in 2020. This target will induce major changes in the global refinery industry. We have estimated the impact on the Dutch refinery industry, which annually produces about 8 million tons of heavy fuel oil for sea shipping, with refinery residues as main component. It is technically possible to convert all residues, although this process will cause an additional energy use of about one million tons of crude oil and a related CO2 emission of about 4 million tons. The investment costs for these major changes in the Dutch refinery industry are estimated at about €1.5 tot 2 billion. The recent IMO agreement enables a gradual introduction of cleaner shipping fuels, which will reduce market disruptions and peak prices. Nevertheless Rotterdam may not necessarily be able to develop a similar position in import, export and bunkering of future low sulphur fuels, compared to its present strong position in the market of heavy marine bunkers. Extrapolation of our national study to the global scale suggests that the deep conversion of 350 million tons of heavy fuel oil for shipping would require refinery investments in the order of € 70-100 billion. The associated CO2 emissions would amount up to 175 Mton. The net additional CO2 emission, however, would be smaller since lighter shipping fuels result in less CO2 emissions at sea. On balance, we expect that the improvements in fuel economy, driven by the expensive low-carbon shipping fuels, will decrease CO2 emissions more than the increase in CO2 emissions from additional desulphurization in the refineries. Nevertheless CO2 emissions from sea shipping will continue to increase since marine transport is rapidly growing.

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