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Titel:
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Monitoring energieverbruik 1982-1996: methode, resultaten en perspectieven
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Auteur(s):
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Gepubliceerd door:
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Publicatie datum:
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ECN
Beleidsstudies
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1-12-1998
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ECN publicatienummer:
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Publicatie type:
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ECN-C--98-046
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ECN rapport
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Aantal pagina's:
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Volledige tekst:
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158
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Download PDF
(6932kB)
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Samenvatting:
According to the Third White Paper on Energy Policy the Dutch governmentintends to monitor, on a regular basis, developments in the national energy
system. Special attention should be paid to renewable energy supply, energy
savings and the transition towards markets for energy carriers. There is also
a need to calculate, as far as possible, the effects of recent energy policy
measures, to make a comparison with other countries and to find 'white spots'
in the monitoring field. This report is a first attempt, broad but of limited
depth, to fulfil these goals. First, an analysis-framework, called MONIT, has
been developed to unravel in a systematic and consistent manner the changes
in total and sectoral energy use from year tot year over the period
1982-1996. MONIT can be described as a mixture of an energy balance, with
energy carriers and sectors, and a simple simulation model of historic energy
use. Besides the analysis function the MONIT system can be used also to
present all kinds of historic trends: energy use per sector and/or energy
carrier, with or without corrections for yearly climate variations. Next,
analyses were made of energy use in the period 1982-1996 for a number of end
use and supply sectors: households, industry, horticulture, services,
construction, transportation, refineries, power plants and gas supply. Next
to energy itself attention was paid in each sector to a number of variables,
which influence energy use, leading to the calculation of energy-intensities.
Furthermore, trends with (more efficient) energy using systems, including
cogeneration, were mapped. From these sectoral analyses estimates have been
acquired for the value of the three main factors which are responsible for
energy use developments: volume-, structure- and saving-effects. The first
effect differs per sector, e.g. production (value added) in industry,
person-kilometres driven in transportation and number of inhabitants in the
household sector. The savings effect is the result of various measures to
lower energy use, without restricting the need for energy services, such as
heated houses and kilometers travelled. The structure effect consist of all
socio-economic developments which lead to a faster or slower growth of the
need for energy services than follows from the main driving force,
represented in the volume effect. With this sectoral information calculations
have been executed with MONIT; the results encompass a split up of national
and sectoral changes in energy use into ten different parts. Included are
also changes due to variations in the supply side of the energy system. The
last part of the report encompasses a comparison with a number of relevant
countries: Sweden, Germany, Spain, United Kingdom and Denmark. Apart from
energy use and energy intensity trends, special attention has been paid to
policy goals and (new) measures, market trends, etc. Finally, an overview is
given of the way to gain more insights into energy developments for policy
makers. The present results from MONIT are used to select the most rewarding
areas with respect to improving the monitoring results. 41 refs.
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