Titel:

SAVEtransport overige vervoerswijzen personenvervoer: modellering van energieverbruiksontwikkelingen in het personenvervoer


Auteur(s):



Gepubliceerd door:

Publicatie datum:

ECN
Beleidsstudies

1997


ECN publicatienummer:

Publicatie type:

ECNI97007

ECN rapport


Aantal pagina's:

Volledige tekst:

81

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Samenvatting:
The objective of the Simulation and Analysis of Virtual energy use inEnergy scenarios (SAVE) model is the analysis of future energy savings
possibilities for end users in conjunction with volume growth and structural
changes in the socioeconomic system. This report describes the
SAVETransport unit 'Other Means of Transport for Passengers': bus, train,
electric city transport (tram, underground, trolleybus), airplane, van, taxi,
motorcycle, moped, and ship. Each of these transport means have been
separately modelled to calculate the developments in energy use of the
modelled transport means for five year periods until 2020. In SAVE the
difference between future energy use and that of the base year is attributed
to three factors: volume developments, structural changes and savings. The
results of the model consist of energy use (in PJ) per means of conveyance
from 1995 to 2020 with intervals of 5 years. The energy use calculations are
based on historical data. According to the model calculations passenger air
transport appears to be an important energy user in the future. This is
caused by the assumed huge aviation growth, especially in comparison to the
demand for other means of transport. The latter does not grow very fast and
sometimes even decreases, due to the assumptions of the Global Shift
scenario. Therefore, a decrease of energy use seems to make most sense in
aviation. Both in absolute terms (diminishing volume growth) as well as in
relative terms (savings). The potential of savings appears to be able to
accomplish a considerable decrease in energy use (under given volume growth)
for all means of transport, with maximum savings varying from 30%
(motorcycle, trolleybus) to 65% (diesel van). The implementation of energy
saving measures should always be accompanied by an analysis of the costs and
benefits of the proposed measures. Some recommendations for further research
can be pointed out. The most important of these are the development of the
possibility to include several parallel volume developments scenarios in the
model and the calculation of energy use in primary energy terms instead of in
secondary energy terms. 20 figs., 35 tabs., 78 refs.
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