ECN publicatie:
Titel:
International energy technology portfolio assessment: ETSAP's contributions
 
Auteur(s):
Kram, T.
 
Gepubliceerd door: Publicatie datum:
ECN Beleidsstudies 1995
 
ECN publicatienummer: Publicatie type:
ECN-RX--95-072 Conferentiebijdrage
 
Aantal pagina's: Volledige tekst:
19  Niet beschikbaar.

Gepresenteerd op: IEA/OECD/ETSAP seminar on the role of energy thechnologies toward sustainable development, Kansai Science City, Japan, 16-17 oktober 1995.

Samenvatting:
New and improved energy technologies are to play a decisive role in anyfuture strategy aiming to reconcile economic development goals with long-term sustainability concerns. For the longer term, assessments of the possible role for new and improved technologies and options under varying conditions can be used to help guide research, development and dissemination (R,D&D) programmes. Relevant conditions can be common to all nations (e.g. prices of internationally traded fuels, agreed environmental goals), or country specific (supply and demand structures, resource base, policies). Selection of appropriate R,D&D portfolios, either at the national level or in the framework of international cooperation, is facilitated by increasing the insights in key conditions favouring or hampering the introduction and/or expansion of technologies and options. Energy Technology R,D&D decision making is inherently subject to considerable uncertainties, both with respect to (future) characteristics of the technology itself and with respect to the (future) external conditions it may be facing. Network oriented modelling approaches, in particular those offering comprehensive, dynamic and systemic evaluations like the MARKAL model and its off-springs, can provide valuable information and insights. International collaboration in the framework of the IEA ETSAP programme, within which the MARKAL model family is developed and applied, has shown its strength by providing a platform for methodological discussions, but also for technology data exchange, evaluation and review. From the extensive experience gained within ETSAP, key factors driving the appreciation of technologies and options to reduce environmental externalities are identified, as well as potential 'winners' in individual countries and/or in groups of countries. Recently stochastic modelling approaches are initiated, i.a. to study hedging strategies under uncertainty with respect to climate change. These can add decisively to the technology R,D&D assessment capabilities compared with the prevailing practice of employing multiple scenario, deterministic analyses. 2 figs., 3 tabs.


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