ECN publicatie:
Endogenous learning in climate-energy-economic models. An inventory of key uncertainties
Gepubliceerd door: Publicatie datum:
ECN Beleidsstudies 1-2-2004
ECN publicatienummer: Publicatie type:
ECN-RX--04-111 Artikel wetenschap tijdschrift
Aantal pagina's:

Gepubliceerd in: International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy,2, 1/2, 2004, pp. 130-141. (Inderscience Publishers), , , Vol., p.-.

This paper gives an overview of uncertainties related to endogenouslearning as observed in integrated assessment models (IAMs) of global warming, both for bottum-up and top-down climate-energy-economic models. A classification is formulated by which uncertainties can be evaluated, and parameter uncertainties. We emphasise that the analysis of uncertainties in IAM exercises of global warming is essential for both scientific and policy-making related reasons. At present, proper analyses of the sensititivity and robustness characteristics of modelling results are often omitted. Our main conclusion, and recommendation, is that in future IAM analyses of climate change, both for the benefit of scientists and public policy decision makers, the presence of different kinds of uncertainties should be appropriately recognised, classified, quantified and reported.

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